Clinton, Ryan Do Well in Opening Round of 2016 Presidential Polling for Wisconsin

Is it 2016 yet? No, but daily news reports and, even more so, any glimpse into political maneuvering nationwide clearly show that a lot of work is already going into laying groundwork for the next race for president. Marquette Law School Poll results released Tuesday join in the early going, showing that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is at a strong advantage in Wisconsin among potential Democratic candidates, while the Republican field is pretty wide open. That said, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan drew the most support among Republicans in Wisconsin.

Charles Franklin, director of the poll and newly-named professor of law and public policy at the Law School, said the purpose of the presidential questions at this point wasn’t to try to predict what will happen in 2016 in Wisconsin. Rather, he said, it is to begin building a picture of how the race will evolve.

That said, the poll found that 27% of those who said they were Republican or lean Republican named Ryan as their preferred candidate. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was the choice of 21%, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker drew 16%, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was picked by 11%. Those under 10% included Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7%); former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (5%); and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (1%).

Clinton was the preference of 62% of Democrats and those who said they lean Democratic. Vice President Joe Biden was the choice of 13%. Drawing less than 10% were Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (5%); New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (4%); Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (2%); Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (1%); and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner (1%).

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Milwaukee: The Most Dangerous Size

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:P14-45_handgun_.jpgLast week, the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics issued a new report compiling nearly two decades of data on gun crime, Firearm Violence, 1993-2011.  No doubt, many readers will pore over the report’s abundant tables and graphs looking for support for their views on gun control.  However, I was most struck by a breakdown of firearm violence based on population size (table 5).  Among the six size-based categories, the most dangerous places were cities of 500,000-999,999 — the category containing Milwaukee (pop. 597,867).  These mid-large cities not only have rates of gun crime that are about four times higher than cities of less than 100,000, but they are also forty-four percent higher than cities of one million or more.

More specifically, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey, there were 4.6 nonfatal firearm victimizations per 1,000 persons age twelve or older in the mid-large cities in 2010 and 2011.  (Nationally, homicides constitute only two percent of all gun-related crimes, so the NCVS numbers would not change much if fatalities were included, too.)  The second-highest rate was 3.9, for cities with 250,000-499,999.

The numbers look very different today than they did in 1996-1997, when the Milwaukee-sized cities were tied for second place with 7.3 victimizations per 1,000, and the medium-sized cities (250,000-499,999) led with 10.3.

I have two reactions to the data.  First, the relationship of community size to gun violence is in some respects predictable, and in others quite puzzling. 

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Garner’s Tips on Editing Sentences

One of my students, Drew Walgreen, recommended this article by Bryan A. Garner, published originally in the Michigan Bar Journal.  Bryan Garner, if you haven’t already heard, is a noted legal writing specialist and author who has written books such as Legal Writing in Plain English.  This article focuses on twenty common mistakes lawyers make when editing sentences.  I like that the article gives an example of each mistake and the corrected version.

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