New research investigates the cost of housing in the Milwaukee metro

The Lubar Center’s latest research project takes a careful look at how housing affordability has changed in the Milwaukee metro in the early 2020s.

Our article, “Can a typical worker still buy a house in the Milwaukee metro? Increasingly, no,” was published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on October 9, 2024. Journal Sentinel business reporter Genevieve Redsten also contributed an article to the series, “Homeownership is less attainable in the Milwaukee area. Why new construction hasn’t been part of the solution.“

Our research uncovered much more than could fit in a single story. We have shared additional resources in this web report. It includes more methodological details about our calculations and statistics for individual municipalities in the four-county Milwaukee area.

Previously, we’ve written about how the subprime mortgage crisis and the end of the residency requirement contributed to plummeting owner-occupancy rates in the City of Milwaukee. Home values fell to very low levels in Milwaukee, while rents remained relatively elevated. Consequently, home-ownership was far more cost effective than renting for many families. Meanwhile, rents–particularly in poor neighborhoods–were quite profitable. This profitable potential eventually brought Milwaukee (and similar rust belt cities) to the attention of private equity-backed corporate landlords in the late 2010s and early 2020s.

Those same years saw owner occupancy finally begin to recover in Milwaukee. Owner-occupancy grew slightly in 2019, the first year-over-year increase since 2005. These circumstances combined to foster fierce competition between would-be homeowners and out-of-state investors, particularly in majority Black neighborhoods on the city’s north side.

scatterplot showing the change in owner-occupied houses and out-of-state owned houses in Milwaukee aldermanic districts from 2018 to 2022

Since 2022, the market has cooled off. Home prices are still sky high, and increased interest rates have driven the monthly cost required to buy a house even higher. But high interest rates have also changes the calculus of corporate investors. All three of the large private equity backed firms operating in Milwaukee’s rental market have stopped buying and started selling in the past two years. For the first time since the subprime mortgage crisis began, the net number of homes owned by an out-of-state landlord actually declined in the City of Milwaukee during 2023, and that slight decline continued into the beginning of 2024 as well.

Net levels of owner-occupancy continued to grow in 2023 and 2024, albeit at a much slower pace than the preceding several years. It’s no wonder why the market has cooled. Owner-occupancy is far less attainable for many workers, as our latest article discusses in detail. Also, the cost-benefit analysis of owning a home versus renting has shifted. In 2020, we calculated that a typical single family home was cheaper to own than rent, even when factoring in the same kinds of maintenance cost assumptions used by professional property managers. That is no longer true in 2024.

Here is an even simpler comparison. This graph shows the average monthly rent in Milwaukee in blue and the monthly payment needed to buy the average house in red. Before 2018, the PITI (principal, interest, taxes, and insurance) needed to buy the average Milwaukee house was cheaper than the monthly rent for the average apartment (of any size). The two costs were about tied from 2018 through 2020. Since then, the relative cost of owning has skyrocketed, while rents have grown more modestly. “From 2019 to 2024, the monthly costs needed to buy an average home in the city of Milwaukee grew by $854 or an increase of 83%. The average monthly rent grew by $316, or 31%.”

line plot showing the monthly cost of buying a house vs renting an apartment in Milwaukee

These comparisons of monthly cost ignore the equity accrued by homeowners. This equity is substantial for homeowners who bought during the 2010s, and those owners also benefit from the low interest rates they either initially received or refinanced into. While increased home values exclude a growing number of workers from the home-buying market, they are a windfall for incumbent owners. We estimate that someone who bought the average house in Milwaukee in 2019, paying 5% down, has accrued an average of $78,000 in equity.

Milwaukee remains more affordable than the great majority of major American cities, but home-buying has become far more difficult, even impossible, for many workers. And the financial benefit to buying a house instead of renting one is no longer as straightforward as during the late 2010s.

Continue ReadingNew research investigates the cost of housing in the Milwaukee metro

The Face of the Case: Obergefell Tells How He Became Part of Legal History

James Obergefell grew up in a blue collar, Catholic family in Sandusky, Ohio, got an undergraduate degree from the University of Cincinnati, and became a high school teacher.

“I was deep in the closet,” he said as he told his story during a program Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in the Lubar Center at Marquette Law School. He came out in the early 1990s while he was in graduate school and met John Arthur. Within a short time, they considered themselves married. Legally, they were not – at the time, same sex marriage was not legal anywhere in the United States. But beginning in the mid -990s, they decided they wanted “marriage and everything that came with it,” as Obergefell put it.

Obergefell told Derek Mosley. executive director of the Law School’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education, who moderated the conversation before a capacity audience of more than 200. how the legal landscape began to change, including a US Supreme Court decision in 2013 that struck down a federal law known as the Defense of Marriage Act. During the same period, Arthur’s health declined sharply after being he was diagnosed with ALS in 2012.

After the Supreme Court decision, Obergefell and Arthur decided to get married. Because Arthur’s health was so precarious, they needed to act quickly. And because legalities involving marriage varied across the country, they ended up taking a medical ambulance flight to the Baltimore/Washington airport in Maryland, where they could have a ceremony without ever getting off the airplane. Three months later, Arthur died.

What emerged from their marriage was a court case focused on whether Obergefell was the surviving spouse legally. And that case was joined with similar cases that ended up before the US Supreme Court, resulting in the landmark decision of Obergefell v. Hodges in 2015 which made same sex marriage legal throughout the United States. Obergefell recounted the events of the day the Supreme Court decision was issued. “I burst into tears” in the courtroom, he said. “For the first time in my life as an out gay man, I felt like an equal American,” he said. The audience applauded when he said that.   

Obergefell’s name became a big part of American legal history. And Obergefell himself moved from being a person of no prominence and no notable involvement as an activist into a continuing spotlight. It made him, as Mosley put it at the Law School program, “the face of the case,” someone who continues to be an advocate for rights of many kinds and someone who tells his personal story openly and with impact. Obergefell said he has realized how “stories matter — stories can change hearts and minds.”

“Going through something like this has a profound impact,” Obergefell told the audience. “It changes you.”

Obergefell said he is still motivated by anger over things he sees as wrong and the need to advocate for the rights of people facing many different situations. He also has less intense involvements, such as co-owning a wine label that has raised more than $250,000 for causes supported by him and the co-owner.

“Nothing makes me happier than to know that young people today are growing up in a world where the question of their right, their ability, to get married and have that relationship recognized is there.” Obergefell said.  “I had the absolute honor and privilege of being part of making things better for people younger than I am.”

Video of the one-hour program may be viewed by clicking below.

Continue ReadingThe Face of the Case: Obergefell Tells How He Became Part of Legal History

The 2024 Wisconsin Assembly Races are the Most Contested in a Decade

This post was updated on July 25th to add 3 contested GOP Assembly primaries.

The state legislative districts Wisconsin adopted in February 2024 bear little resemblance to the maps used previously.

As I wrote at the time, the new map is more competitive: there are more seats either party could win, and those seats will determine who controls both chambers. It is also more contested. The number of districts drawing a candidate from both parties, and the number of party primaries drawing multiple candidates are both unusually high.

The contested nature of the new districts is the subject of this blog post.

Voters in 82 Assembly districts (out of 99) will be able to choose between a Democrat and a Republican in November 2024. That is the highest number since at least 2010. In 2022, just 73 districts featured a candidate from both major parties.

The situation in the State Senate is different. Only 11 (of 16) races offer both a Democrat and a Republican. That is down from 12 (out of 17) in 2022.

Seats contested by both parties
Wisconsin State Legislature
assemblysenate
20106815
20127210
20144714
2016508
20186113
20207911
20227312
20248211

Under the new map, many legislators found themselves living in new districts—sometimes along with other sitting incumbents. This big shakeup creates a lot of opportunities for contested primaries.

To see how this primary season compares to past years, I collected the election results from each August partisan primary beginning in 2012. Here are the results.

Given that there are 99 Assembly districts, there can be a total of 198 Democratic or Republican contested primaries. In 2024, there will be 46, up from 31 in 2022, 25 in 2020, and 17 in 2018. The last time we saw more contested primaries was 2012, when 45 featured at least two candidates.

The number of contested Republican primaries in 2024 is 2 more than in 2022. But the number of contested Democratic primaries grew from 8 in 2022 to 21 in 2024.

Fewer State Senate races feature competitive primaries. Out of 16 seats (32 potential primaries), only 4 are contested, 2 for each party. This is down from 7 in 2022 and 8 in 2020.

bar plot showing the number of primary races contested by each party in the WI state legislature

Most Wisconsinites live in a district that leans quite strongly toward one party or the other, so the partisan primary is often the most consequential state legislative race available to these voters. I was curious how many districts feature a contested primary from either party.

By this measure, 2024 is record setting, at least since 2012. Forty-five districts offer at least one contested Assembly primary. The next highest year is 2012, when 39 districts did so.

About 60,000 people live in each district, so roughly 960,000 more Wisconsin residents live in a district with a competitive primary in 2024 than two years ago. Compared to 2018, 1.68 million more Wisconsinites live somewhere with a contested Assembly primary.

bar plot showing the number of districts with at least one contested partisan primary in the wisconsin state legislature

Of the 21 contested Democratic primaries, 9 are in southeastern Wisconsin (7 in Milwaukee County), and another 7 are in the greater Madison metro. Two are near Eau Claire, and one is in the newly Democratic-leaning district south of La Crosse.  Districts along Green Bay and Lake Superior have also drawn multiple Democratic candidates.

The 25 contested Republican primaries include 9 in the north central and northwestern parts of the state. Another 7 contested districts are near Lake Winnebago, Brown County, Sheboygan, and Manitowoc. Finally, a set of districts in the more suburban areas of southeastern Wisconsin also feature multiple GOP candidates. None of the southwestern districts feature competitive Republican primaries.

Click here for an interactive map showing the locations and candidates in each contested state legislative district.

map showing the contested primary status of assembly districts
map showing contested primary status of MKE area assembly seats

Two of the most interesting Assembly primaries are occurring in the Milwaukee metro, scarcely 20 miles apart. Each features an incumbent legislator who sits to the ideological fringe of their party, and each has drawn a challenger supported by more mainstream members of their party.

The 24th Assembly district leans Republican by about 20 points. It covers parts of suburban Menomonee Falls and Germantown in southeastern Washington County. The current incumbent is Janel Brandtjen who has “drawn national attention as one of the Wisconsin Legislature’s most prominent purveyors of conspiracies about the 2020 election.” Current Republican State Senator Dan Knodl has chosen to run instead in the 24th Assembly district Republican primary. Brandtjen has been endorsed by Donald Trump himself, while Knodl has drawn support from Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin.

The 19th district features a politician about as far removed from Janel Brandtjen as possible. Incumbent Ryan Clancy is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and a cofounder of the state Assembly’s two-member socialist caucus. He is endorsed by many of the state’s leading progressive organizations and some left-leaning Democratic legislators. His primary challenger is Jarrod Anderson, a self-described “pragmatic progressive” with endorsements from numerous local Democratic politicians including the mayor, the county executive, the chair of the county board of supervisors, and the district’s previous incumbent.

Because both of these districts are strongly partisan—Republican in one case and Democratic in the other—contested primaries like these give voters a uniquely consequential choice between actual alternatives. For outside observers, they offer a unique opportunity to view the relative strength of the political coalitions which make up each party’s base.

Continue ReadingThe 2024 Wisconsin Assembly Races are the Most Contested in a Decade
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