Wisconsin Governor 2026 Outlook

Post author:Charles Franklin
Post published:July 24, 2025
Post category:Marquette Law School Poll Political Processes & Rhetoric Public

Gov. Tony Evers announced July 24 that he will not seek a third term in 2026.

Evers has been the most consistently popular state politician in Wisconsin since his election in 2018. He has maintained an average approval rating above 50%, with disapproval averaging 41%. He is also better known and better liked than most other office holders in the state.

With Evers out of the race all the candidates in both the Democratic and Republican primaries will begin with very low name recognition and will need substantial campaign resources to introduce themselves to voters statewide.

A majority of registered voters in the June 2025 Marquette Law School poll said they would not like Evers to seek a third term, though over 80% of Democrats wanted him to run.

Should Evers run? (June 2025 MULawPoll)

Would you personally like to see Tony Evers seek a third term as governor in 2026?

Poll dates	Yes	No	Don’t know	Refused	n
6/13-19/25	42	55	2	1	873

Evers retains strong support for a third term with Democratic voters, 83% of whom support a third term bid, but 50% of independents oppose a third term as do a very large majority of Republicans.

Party ID	Yes	No	Don’t know	Refused	n
Republican	7	93	0	0	398
Independent	37	50	9	4	106
Democrat	83	15	1	1	363

Evers job approval history

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Poll dates	Net	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused	n
1/16-20/19	17	39	22	38	1	800
4/3-7/19	10	47	37	15	0	800
8/25-29/19	20	54	34	10	1	800
10/13-17/19	18	52	34	13	1	799
11/13-17/19	5	47	42	10	1	801
12/3-8/19	12	50	38	11	1	800
1/8-12/20	11	51	40	9	0	800
2/19-23/20	13	51	38	10	1	1000
3/24-29/20	36	65	29	6	1	813
5/3-7/20	26	59	33	7	1	811
6/14-18/20	16	54	38	6	1	805
8/4-9/20	20	57	37	6	0	801
8/30-9/3/20	8	51	43	5	2	802
9/30-10/4/20	10	52	42	5	1	805
10/21-25/20	7	50	43	7	0	806
8/3-8/21	7	50	43	7	0	807
10/26-31/21	-1	45	46	8	1	805
2/22-27/22	9	50	41	8	1	802
4/19-24/22	6	49	43	7	1	805
6/14-20/22	3	48	45	6	1	803
8/10-15/22	2	47	45	8	1	811
9/6-11/22	-3	44	47	8	0	801
10/3-9/22	-2	46	48	5	1	801
10/24-11/1/22	-1	46	47	6	2	802
6/8-13/23	18	57	39	4	0	913
10/26-11/2/23	7	53	46	2	0	908
1/24-31/24	7	51	44	5	0	930
4/3-10/24	8	52	44	3	0	814
6/12-20/24	7	51	44	6	0	871
7/24-8/1/24	7	51	44	5	0	877
8/28-9/5/24	7	51	44	5	0	822
9/18-26/24	2	48	46	5	0	882
10/16-24/24	6	51	45	4	0	834
2/19-26/25	5	49	44	6	0	864
6/13-19/25	2	48	46	5	0	873

Average approval: 50.4% Average disapproval: 41.2%

Number of poll with positive and negative net approval:

Net postive approval: 31 of 35 polls.

Net negative approval: 4 of 35 polls.

Approval by year

Year	Net	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused	n
2019	13	48	35	16	1	4800
2020	16	54	38	7	1	7443
2021	2	47	45	7	1	1612
2022	2	47	45	7	1	5625
2023	13	55	42	3	0	1821
2024	7	51	44	5	0	6030
2025	4	49	45	6	0	1737

Evers favorability

[Tony Evers] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Poll dates	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not heard+DK	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
2/25-3/1/18	7	20	13	66	48	18	800
6/13-17/18	5	22	17	61	45	16	800
7/11-15/18	11	25	14	60	46	14	800
8/15-19/18	8	31	23	45	37	9	800
9/12-16/18	9	35	26	39	29	10	800
10/3-7/18	3	38	35	27	22	5	1000
10/24-28/18	0	38	38	24	18	5	1400
1/16-20/19	17	41	24	34	28	6	800
4/3-7/19	13	48	35	17	12	5	800
8/25-29/19	14	49	35	16	11	5	800
10/13-17/19	12	47	35	18	13	5	799
11/13-17/19	2	43	41	15	12	3	801
12/3-8/19	8	45	37	17	12	5	800
1/8-12/20	8	45	37	17	14	3	800
2/19-23/20	3	43	40	16	12	4	1000
3/24-29/20	26	54	28	17	11	6	813
5/3-7/20	14	50	36	13	7	5	811
6/14-18/20	17	54	37	9	7	2	805
8/4-9/20	17	52	35	13	9	4	801
8/30-9/3/20	6	47	41	11	9	2	802
9/30-10/4/20	7	47	40	12	9	3	805
10/21-25/20	4	47	43	10	8	2	806
8/3-8/21	4	46	42	11	8	3	807
10/26-31/21	-3	42	45	12	9	4	805
2/22-27/22	6	47	41	11	7	4	802
4/19-24/22	5	47	42	10	7	3	805
6/14-20/22	2	44	42	14	11	2	803
8/10-15/22	5	46	41	12	6	6	811
9/6-11/22	0	45	45	10	7	3	801
10/3-9/22	-2	44	46	9	6	3	801
10/24-11/1/22	-2	44	46	9	6	3	802
6/8-13/23	13	52	39	9	8	1	913
10/26-11/2/23	8	50	42	8	7	1	908
1/24-31/24	7	52	45	3	3	0	930
4/3-10/24	5	50	45	5	5	0	814
6/12-20/24	8	51	43	6	6	0	871
7/24-8/1/24	9	50	41	9	9	0	877
8/28-9/5/24	6	49	43	8	8	0	822
9/18-26/24	9	51	42	7	6	0	882
10/16-24/24	5	49	44	7	7	0	834
2/19-26/25	0	47	47	7	6	0	864
6/13-19/25	-2	45	47	8	8	0	873

Evers favorability by year

Year	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not heard+DK	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
2018	6	31	25	43	33	10	6400
2019	12	46	34	20	15	5	4800
2020	11	49	38	13	10	4	7443
2021	0	44	44	12	8	4	1612
2022	3	46	43	11	7	4	5625
2023	10	51	41	8	7	1	1821
2024	7	50	43	6	6	0	6030
2025	-1	46	47	8	7	0	1737

Building name familiarity

Evers is now far better known than any of the potential Democratic or Republican candidates. His absence from the race levels the playing field with all candidates having to take time to build recognition. While candidates may be well known locally in their city or district, creating statewide name recognition requires extensive campaigning.

In February 2018, Evers was unknown to 66% of registered voters (who said they either hadn’t heard enough or didn’t know if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.) Even by July 2018 he was still unfamiliar to 60%. This is typical of non-incumbent candidates who must introduce themselves to voters statewide.

For comparison, in February 2022 Rebecca Kleefisch, after serving 8 years as Lt. Governor, was unfamiliar to 50%. In January 2019, following his election as Attorney General, Josh Kaul was not familiar to 77%. In June 2023, U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany was unfamiliar to 75%.

Wisconsin State Assembly: statistics on the number of flips, incumbent defeats, and open seats in past elections

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:June 3, 2024
Post category:Lubar Center Political Processes & Rhetoric

Elections for the Wisconsin Assembly haven’t seen much drama for a decade. The decline in ticket splitting among voters across the state, combined with the rock-solid gerrymander drawn in 2011, meant that scarcely any seats changed hands between parties. The “least-change” map adopted in 2022 tipped a few more seats toward the GOP but mainly reaffirmed the electoral status quo.

The new state legislative maps drawn by Governor Evers and passed in early 2024 bear little resemblance to those used previously. Most Wisconsinites live in a new district. WPR reports that “at least 44 state representatives and senators will run in new districts.”

With so much up in the air, I wanted to calculate election statistics from some of Wisconsin’s previous, relatively un-gerrymandered maps. How many seats usually changed hands between the parties? How often did incumbents lose? How common were open seats?

First, here is a graph showing the seats won by each party in each November general election. I begin in 1972, because that was the first year when the Assembly had 99 members (before that, it had 100).

Democrats held a majority of the Assembly from the 1970 election until 1994. Then, Republicans controlled it until 2008. After the 2008 election, Democrats briefly controlled both chambers of the state legislature and the governor’s mansion. The Tea Party wave in 2010 flipped all chambers to Republican control. The balance of power in the Assembly has changed little since then.

bar plot showing seats won by each political party in the wisconsin assembly, 1972-2022

The next series of graphs show selected election statistics for each general election to the Assembly.

The number of uncontested seats—where just 1 party fields a candidate—has bounced around. But it has generally been lower in the 2010s than the 1990s and 2000s.
Incumbents are rarely defeated. Under the maps in use from 2012-2020, a total of 8 incumbents lost to a non-incumbent challenger.
The number of open seats (with no incumbent running) has followed a natural rhythm. In most years, around 15 races feature no incumbent, but every decade or so the number of open seats jumps to around a quarter of the chamber.
The number of seats flipping between the parties has rarely been high, but it was especially low during the 2010s. This statistic can only be calculated when the district boundaries are used in sequential elections.
- There were 396 general elections for an assembly seat from 2014 to 2020. Only 7 resulted in a flip. That’s a flip rate of 1.8%.
- From 2004-2010, 35 seats flipped, a rate of 8.8%.
- From 1994-2000, 17 seats flipped, a rate of 4.3%.
- From 1986-1990, 16 seats flipped, a rate of 5.4%. (Both the 1982 and 1984 elections featured new districts).
- From 1974-1980, 31 seats flipped, a rate of 7.8%.

Prior to 1972, the Wisconsin Assembly contained 100 seats. This graph shows the partisan composition of each legislature from 1885 through 1971. This data is slightly different than the figures shown above, because it shows party membership of legislators in December of each odd-numbered year. The data I discuss above shows the party composition of the winners in each even-numbered general election.

The Republican Party overwhelmingly dominated the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries in Wisconsin. Democrats held a majority after only 5 elections during the entire period from 1885 to 1971. During the 1920s, Republicans held almost all the seats in the Assembly and the Socialist Party typically won more seats than the Democrats.

bar plot showing the partisan balance of the wisconsin assembly, 1885-1971

Note: The graph titled “Wisconsin State Assembly General Elections, Selected Outcomes, 1972-2022” has been corrected to show that 26, not 25, seats were contested by 1 party in 2022.

Disapproval, discontent, and uncertainty: Marquette expert observers describe 2024 election dynamics

Post author:Alan J. Borsuk
Post published:December 4, 2023
Post category:Election Law Lubar Center Political Processes & Rhetoric Public Speakers at Marquette

On the one hand, “a year is forever in politics,” so don’t panic about where you think the party and candidates you favor are standing this far from the November 2024 national election.

On the other hand, there is a strong prospect of an unprecedented presidential election between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump in a time of great discontent around politics, and standard understandings of political dynamics may not apply.

And some of the things going on politics – such as former Trump Cabinet members becoming opponents and critics of Trump – are not easy to explain.

So the outlook for the 2024 election for president is complex, fascinating, and uncertain, in the view of three nationally respected political observers, each with ties to Marquette University, who took part in an “On the Issues” program Nov. 29, 2023, in the Lubar Center of Marquette Law School.

The three statements at the start of this blog post summarize thoughts from, respectively, Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll; Craig Gilbert, a fellow at the Marquette Law School Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education; and Marquette Professor Julia Azari, a political scientist who is quoted frequently in national discussions on politics.

“A Trump-Biden matchup would be so unprecedented,” said Gilbert, formerly the Washington bureau chief of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. An incumbent president against a former president is not the only reason for saying that. The ages of the candidates, especially widely held perceptions of Biden being too old, and the large negative ratings of both candidates are also factors.

“We live in an era of chronic disapproval and discontent,” Gilbert said. “Everybody ‘s unpopular and everybody’s unhappy. Who’s happy?”

Franklin said a good reason to pay attention to poll results at this point – and the Marquette Law School Poll released both national and Wisconsin results recently – is not to predict how elections a year from now will turn out. It is to see how races are shaping up and, in the long run, to be able to understand more about the course that leads to final outcomes.

The race for the Republican nomination is dominated now by Trump, Franklin said, but Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations while Trump was president, does better than Trump in head-to-head match-ups against Biden. Franklin said Republican voters are split, with about 70% having favorable opinions of Trump and 30% having unfavorable opinions. Even if Haley looks strong against Biden, overcoming Trump within the Republican race will be a big challenge for her. “You’ve got to get the nomination to become the nominee,” Franklin said.

Azari said that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was positioning himself as “Trump-plus” and Haley as “Trump-light” in appealing to voters, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was running as the anti-Trump. Support for DeSantis has been slipping, Christie is not gaining momentum, and Haley has become the alternative to Trump getting the most attention among Republicans.

Gilbert said about 20% of voters are “double haters,” with negative opinions of both Trump and Biden. They could become important in shaping the race, as could voters who have a somewhat negative opinion of Biden but who might vote for him in a match against Trump.

Looking to Wisconsin, Gilbert said voting patterns in the state have changed significantly in the past couple decades. The “WOW counties” — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties, adjacent to Milwaukee County – were long-time Republican bastions, but Republican margins have grown smaller in recent elections. Some rural parts of Wisconsin used to be more “purple,” with Democrats sometimes doing well, but have become increasingly “red” and supportive of Trump. And Dane County, including Madison, has continued to gain population and increase in its power as a Democratic bastion. “It’s a different map” than it was 20 or 20 years ago when it comes to analyzing Wisconsin voting, he said.

Azari said Trump continues to appeal to “low-propensity voters” who are less likely to vote usually but are more likely to turn out for Trump. Many of them are in more rural parts of Wisconsin.

Franklin said that how much Trump voters will mobilize in 2024 is likely to be an important part of determining the election outcome.

Derek Mosley, director of the Lubar Center and moderator of the program, asked the three what had made Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, such a strong candidate for re-election in Wisconsin in 2024. Azari said Baldwin “has avoided becoming a national lightening rod” for conservatives. Gilbert said that in her Senate victories in 2012 and 2018, Baldwin did better in Republican-oriented parts of the state than other Democrats. Losing some areas by smaller than expected margins should not be underestimated as a valuable part of winning Wisconsin as a whole, he said. And Franklin said that, even though no major Republican candidate for Senate has joined the race so far, it is not too late for that to happen and the Wisconsin race could still heat up.

The conversation may be viewed by clicking below.

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