Disapproval, discontent, and uncertainty: Marquette expert observers describe 2024 election dynamics

On the one hand, “a year is forever in politics,” so don’t panic about where you think the party and candidates you favor are standing this far from the November 2024 national election.

On the other hand, there is a strong prospect of an unprecedented presidential election between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump in a time of great discontent around politics, and standard understandings of political dynamics may not apply.

And some of the things going on politics – such as former Trump Cabinet members becoming opponents and critics of Trump – are not easy to explain.

So the outlook for the 2024 election for president is complex, fascinating, and uncertain, in the view of three nationally respected political observers, each with ties to Marquette University, who took part in an “On the Issues” program Nov. 29, 2023, in the Lubar Center of Marquette Law School.

The three statements at the start of this blog post summarize thoughts from, respectively, Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll; Craig Gilbert, a fellow at the Marquette Law School Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education; and Marquette Professor Julia Azari, a political scientist who is quoted frequently in national discussions on politics.   

“A Trump-Biden matchup would be so unprecedented,” said Gilbert, formerly the Washington bureau chief of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. An incumbent president against a former president is not the only reason for saying that. The ages of the candidates, especially widely held perceptions of Biden being too old, and the large negative ratings of both candidates are also factors.

“We live in an era of chronic disapproval and discontent,” Gilbert said. “Everybody ‘s unpopular and everybody’s unhappy. Who’s happy?”

Franklin said a good reason to pay attention to poll results at this point – and the Marquette Law School Poll released both national and Wisconsin results recently – is not to predict how elections a year from now will turn out. It is to see how races are shaping up and, in the long run, to be able to understand more about the course that leads to final outcomes.

The race for the Republican nomination is dominated now by Trump, Franklin said, but Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations while Trump was president, does better than Trump in head-to-head match-ups against Biden. Franklin said Republican voters are split, with about 70% having favorable opinions of Trump and 30% having unfavorable opinions. Even if Haley looks strong against Biden, overcoming Trump within the Republican race will be a big challenge for her. “You’ve got to get the nomination to become the nominee,” Franklin said.

Azari said that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was positioning himself as “Trump-plus” and Haley as “Trump-light” in appealing to voters, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was running as the anti-Trump. Support for DeSantis has been slipping, Christie is not gaining momentum, and Haley has become the alternative to Trump getting the most attention among Republicans.

Gilbert said about 20% of voters are “double haters,” with negative opinions of both Trump and Biden. They could become important in shaping the race, as could voters who have a somewhat negative opinion of Biden but who might vote for him in a match against Trump.

Looking to Wisconsin, Gilbert said voting patterns in the state have changed significantly in the past couple decades. The “WOW counties” — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties, adjacent to Milwaukee County – were long-time Republican bastions, but Republican margins have grown smaller in recent elections. Some rural parts of Wisconsin used to be more “purple,” with Democrats sometimes doing well, but have become increasingly “red” and supportive of Trump. And Dane County, including Madison, has continued to gain population and increase in its power as a  Democratic bastion. “It’s a different map” than it was 20 or 20 years ago when it comes to analyzing Wisconsin voting, he said.

Azari said Trump continues to appeal to “low-propensity voters” who are less likely to vote usually but are more likely to turn out for Trump. Many of them are in more rural parts of Wisconsin.

Franklin said that how much Trump voters will mobilize in 2024 is likely to be an important part of determining the election outcome.

Derek Mosley, director of the Lubar Center and moderator of the program, asked the three what had made Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, such a strong candidate for re-election in Wisconsin in 2024. Azari said Baldwin “has avoided becoming a national lightening rod” for conservatives. Gilbert said that in her Senate victories in 2012 and 2018, Baldwin did better in Republican-oriented parts of the state than other Democrats. Losing some areas by smaller than expected margins should not be underestimated as a valuable part of winning Wisconsin as a whole, he said. And Franklin said that, even though no major Republican candidate for Senate has joined the race so far, it is not too late for that to happen and the Wisconsin race could still heat up.   

The conversation may be viewed by clicking below.

Continue ReadingDisapproval, discontent, and uncertainty: Marquette expert observers describe 2024 election dynamics

What’s Luck Got to Do with It?

It’s December 2012. I’m a 2L. I’m on my way to take my Federal Jurisdiction exam and meet what I think to be my fate, when I run into a well-intentioned faculty member. He asks me where I’m heading. “To my Fed. Jur. exam,” I manage to get out. His response? “Yikes. Tough class. Well . . . good luck!”

If there’s an inauspicious way to kick off an exam, I’m pretty sure that’s it. 

Fast forward two summers: I had graduated from law school, and my entire life had become about (1) studying for the bar exam, (2) not overdrawing my checking account, and (3) Chipotle burritos. Left and right, people were wishing me good luck on the bar. Every time they did so, the pressure mounted, as did my conviction that my professional future rode entirely on either luck or some God-given ability—neither of which I felt particularly flush with at the time. From these experiences, I began to think “good luck”—even when offered with utmost sincerity—might not the best way to send someone into a high-pressure moment.[i]

But we all do it. We say “good luck” to friends before they start a trial or to students before they take an exam because we wish them well. Behind the two simple words, though, seems the implication that we are mere pawns, our fate left to the caprice of the gods. Luck’s sister concepts are, after all, fortune and chance.[ii] Expounding on the etymology of luck, University of Cambridge Professor Robert S. C. Gordon has written that the word’s etymological roots imply that “[l]uck, good luck at least, brings happiness . . . , and this much seems uncontroversial. But conversely, there is already a more sombre . . . implicitly secular philosophy embedded in this lexical chain . . . : happiness is a matter of pure luck, and the path from one to the other is steeped in doubt.”[iii] In other words, the notion of good luck—or the wish of it—might just imply that our happiness, our success is out of our hands.

Continue ReadingWhat’s Luck Got to Do with It?

New Marquette Lawyer Magazine Focuses on Attorneys at the Heart of Policing and Prosecution, Eviction Proceedings, Courts, and Medical Malpractice

Fall 2023 CoverTrust. It’s an important word to Milwaukee Police Chief Jeffrey Norman, L’02. He wants the city’s police department to have the trust of residents because of what he believes is a new culture in the department. And he wants to work with the community as a whole in a trusting relationship to help Milwaukee deal with some of its big issues.

“Jeffrey Norman Wants Your Trust,” the cover story in the Fall 2023 issue of Marquette Lawyer, Marquette Law School’s magazine, offers an engaging and insightful conversation with Norman. He discusses his goals as police chief, how he came to hold the position, and his thoughts on some of major issues that Milwaukee, its police force, and Norman personally are dealing with. A Milwaukeean through and through—a graduate of North Division High School and the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee and a long-time member of the police department—Norman loves the city and thinks that building a different and constructive relationship between police and residents can make it better. The interview with Norman may be read by clicking here.

Speaking of trust, we trust that other articles in the new magazine will provide a wide range of valuable insights and information. Consider these pieces in the issue:

“Complexity and Contradiction in American Law” is a lightly edited text of the E. Harold Hallows Lecture delivered at Marquette Law School in March 2023 by Judge Gerard E. Lynch, of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit and Columbia Law School. Lynch maintains, contra Dworkin, “that that there isn’t and can’t be a single overall vision that fits together all of American law.” He also makes practical observations about the work of the federal courts. Lynch concludes that an American system where judges have differing philosophies and sometimes reach conclusions different from what other judges would decide is, in fact, a good thing. The article may be read by clicking here.

“Democracy in the Criminal Justice System” offers the insights of Carissa Byrne Hessick, Ransdell Distinguished Professor of Law and Director of the Prosecutors and Politics Project at the University of North Carolina. Hessick assesses the American criminal justice system, which she characterizes as “uniquely democratic.” Hessick last fall delivered Marquette Law School’s annual Barrock Lecture, which serves as the basis for the article. To read her perspective, click here.

“Eviction—So Simple, So Complex, So Human” describes the growing role of attorneys in eviction proceedings in Milwaukee Country, starting from 2016 when a Pulitzer Prize-wining book focused on the impact of evictions in the city of Milwaukee. The article canvasses both support and criticism of trends that have seen more attorneys becoming involved, particularly in representing tenants facing evictions. The article may be read by clicking here.

 “A Glimpse into a Challenging Area of Practice” profiles J. Michael End, L’73, and describes the uphill battle for a plaintiff’s lawyer in medical malpractice cases in Wisconsin. End, whose practice is based in Milwaukee, has represented medical malpractice plaintiffs for decades. Plaintiff’s-side attorneys lose 90 percent of the time at trial in medical malpractice cases, for reasons that include the state of the law, and there are now only 10 or so lawyers in Wisconsin who take these cases for plaintiffs, End says. The article may be read by clicking here.

In the Law School News section of the magazine, we introduce two new members of the Marquette Law School faculty: Christine Chabot, an associate professor of law, and Jason Reinecke, an assistant professor of law. Chabot’s research focuses on federal administrative law, and Reinecke’s on patent law, while they also teach more generally in the curriculum. The Law School News section also reports on remarks by Maha Jweied, CEO of the Responsible Business Initiative for Justice, a nonprofit organization based in Washington, D.C., at the Posner Pro Bono Exchange program at Eckstein Hall this past April. The program recognized the pro bono work of dozens of Marquette Law students. And the news section features four current Marquette Law School students who took part in the Law School’s now-decade-old Summer Youth Institute. The Law School News section may be read by clicking here.

In his column titled “Drawing On—Even Dwelling in—the Past,” Dean Joseph D. Kearney muses about Sensenbrenner Hall, the home of Marquette Law School for many decades. He offers thoughts about what has changed and what has not in the transition to Eckstein Hall, the school’s home since 2010, and how the Law School community continues to benefit from the work of its forebears. The column may be read by clicking here.

Finally: the Class Notes describe recent accomplishments of more than two dozen Marquette lawyers and may be read by clicking here, and the back cover (here) spotlights the success of lawyers who were part of the Law School’s sports law program in meeting career goals.

The full magazine may be read by clicking here


 

Continue ReadingNew Marquette Lawyer Magazine Focuses on Attorneys at the Heart of Policing and Prosecution, Eviction Proceedings, Courts, and Medical Malpractice